Home values barely moved in January, new data shows.
The latest figures from Corelogic show that national dwelling values held steady in January, falling by just 0.03%.
Three of the eight capitals recorded a decline in home values in January, with Melbourne recording the sharpest drop (down 0.6%), followed by the ACT (0.5%) and Sydney (0.4%). Hobart home values were steady in the month.
Brisbane and Perth continued to record growth in values, but there has been a clear and steady loss of momentum in these markets, especially in the detached house sector where growth has eased more noticeably.
“Perth is now recording a slower rate of growth than Brisbane and Adelaide over the rolling quarter,” said CoreLogic’s research director, Tim Lawless.
“In the June quarter of 2024, growth in Perth home values was 7.1%, easing back to just 1.0% growth in the three months to January.”
Adelaide has shown a more resilient trend, with growth there leading the other capitals over the past six months with a 4.8% gain.
Annual growth in national home values has more than halved since moving through a cyclical peak over the 12 months ending February 2024 (9.7%), slowing to 4.3% in January. Melbourne (down 3.3%), ACT (0.5%) and Hobart (0.4%) are all recording annual declines in home values, while Sydney (up 1.7%) is recording the lowest annual gain since June 2023. Regional Victoria was the only broad rest of state region where values have declined over the past 12 months, down 2.6%.
Regional housing markets have also shown a slowing trend in value growth, however, the aggregate ‘combined regionals’ index has been recording a stronger monthly growth trend relative to the capitals through most of 2024 and now into 2025.
“Regional markets seem to be benefitting from a second wind of internal migration, along with an affordability advantage in some markets, and what looks to be some permanency in hybrid working arrangements across some occupations and industries”, Lawless said.
Late last year, ABS reporting on working arrangements revealed 36.3% of employed people usually worked from home, which was down from COVID-highs, but still above the 32.1% reported in 2019.
A shallow downturn? Factoring in the downward revision to previous months, CoreLogic’s national Home Value Index (HVI) is now down 0.3% from the record highs recorded in October last year.
However, with the first rate cut likely to be imminent, alongside improving consumer sentiment, Lawless foresees some renewed support for housing prices over the coming months.
“Lower mortgage rates and a subsequent lift in borrowing capacity as well as an under supply of newly built housing could be setting the foundations for a relatively shallow housing downturn”, he said.
“But the easing cycle for interest rates is likely to be a gradual one, and we also have the ongoing headwinds of affordability constraints, normalising population growth and generally soft economic conditions to contend with.
“All things considered, the likelihood of a significant growth cycle over the coming year remains low”, Lawless concluded.
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