The value of homes across Australia grew in March, new data shows.
After remaining virtually flat in February, CoreLogic’s national Home Value Index posted the first monthly rise since April 2022, to be up 0.6% in March.
Dwelling values were higher across the four largest capital cities and most of the ‘rest-of-state’ regions, led by a 1.4% gain in Sydney.
CoreLogic Research Director Tim Lawless put the rise down to a combination of low advertised stock levels, extremely tight rental conditions and additional demand from overseas migration.
“Although interest rates are high and there is an expectation the economy will slow through the year, it’s clear other factors are now placing upwards pressure on home prices”, Lawless said.
“Advertised supply has been below average since September last year, with capital city listing numbers ending March almost 20% below the previous five-year average. Purchasing activity has also fallen but not as much as available supply; capital city sales activity was estimated to be roughly 7% below the previous five-year average through the March quarter.
“With rental markets this tight, it’s likely we are seeing some spill-over from renting into purchasing, although, with mortgage rates so high, not everyone who wants to buy will be able to qualify for a loan”, he said, adding that similarly, with net overseas migration at record levels and rising, there is a chance more permanent or long-term migrants who can afford to, will skip the rental phase and fast track a home purchase simply because they can’t find rental accommodation.
The lift in housing values has been most evident across the upper quartile of Sydney’s housing market. House values within the most expensive quarter of Sydney’s market were up 2.0% in March and the upper quartile of the Sydney unit market was 1.4% higher over the month.
“Sydney upper quartile house values fell by 17.4% from their peak in January 2022 to a recent low in January 2023, the largest drop from the market peak of any capital city market segment”, Lawless said.
“We may be seeing some opportunistic buyers coming back into the market where prices have fallen the most.”
Regional housing markets have mostly shown firmer housing conditions as well, with the combined regionals index rising 0.2% over the month.
“The best performing regional markets are quite different to what we were seeing through the recent growth cycle”, Lawless noted.
“In today’s market it is mainly rural areas that are seeing the strongest increases, rather than the commutable coastal and lifestyle markets that were booming through the upswing.”
But housing values aren’t rising everywhere. Hobart recorded the largest drop in home values among the capital cities, down 0.9% over the month. Housing values across the southernmost capital have fallen 12.9% since peaking in May last year; overtaking Sydney as the largest cumulative fall from peak across the capital cities. However, the pace of decline has been easing across Hobart over the past three months.
Falls were also recorded in Canberra (down 0.5%), Darwin (0.4%) and Adelaide (0.1%) over the month. Values rose 0.1% in Brisbane, 0.6% in Melbourne and 0.5% in Perth.
