The colder months of winter usually have a slowing effect on real estate listings, but not this year, new research shows.
According to Corelogic Research Director Tim Lawless, new listings added to the national housing market historically* drop by 5.2% between autumn and winter, before rising by an average of 9.8% between winter and spring.
In contrast, however, new listings rose by 13.2% through this year’s winter, driven mostly by a 17.9% lift across the capital cities.
Over the four weeks ending August 13, the number of new listings added to the Australian housing market was 3.3% above the previous five-year average; the first time we have seen the flow of new listings rise above the five-year benchmark since September last year.
Lawless suggests that the counter seasonal lift in vendor activity can probably be attributed to the positive turn in housing values across most regions since March, alongside historically-low advertised supply levels working to boost vendor confidence.
“Anecdotally, we may also be seeing more home owners needing to sell amid a peak in the ‘fixed rate cliff’, elevated interest rates and high cost of living pressures”, Lawless says.
“Data on mortgage arrears continues to show a historically small portion of borrowers are behind on their mortgage repayments, however we are likely to see mortgage stress becoming more evident through the second half of the year.”
The only capital cities to record a higher number of new listings relative to a year ago were Sydney (up 10.9%), Melbourne (9.7%) and the ACT (2.4%).
Each of these cities is also now recording a trend that is above the previous five-year average. The remaining capitals are all recording a rise through winter, but not enough to push fresh stock levels higher than a year ago or above the previous five-year benchmark.
Regional listing trends haven’t shown the same uplift. Since the beginning of winter, the trend in new listings is up 4.6% across the combined regional areas of Australia, but holding 11.7% below levels recorded a year ago and 10.5% below the previous five-year average.
*based on the pre-COVID decade average
