Australia’s housing markets ended the year on a slightly lower note, the latest Corelogic Home Value index shows.
Nevertheless, despite the falls, the result barely made a dent in gains made over the previous years.
After the monthly rate of decline moderated between September and November, CoreLogic’s national index fell 1.1% in December, taking values 5.3% lower over the 2022 calendar year.
The December result was mostly driven by a decline across Melbourne, but also falls in Sydney, Adelaide, Darwin and Canberra. On the flip side, the pace of decline eased across Brisbane and Hobart, while value movements in Perth remained slightly positive for the second consecutive month.
The 5.3% drop in housing values through 2022 marks the first time since 2018 where national home values fell over the calendar year. The 12 months to December also mark the largest calendar year decline since 2008, when values were down 6.4% amid the Global Financial Crisis, and successive interest rate rises.
Annual value falls were the most significant in Sydney (down 12.1%) and Melbourne (8.1%) where conditions peaked early in the year. Hobart (down by 6.9%), the ACT (3.3%), and Brisbane (1.1%) also recorded an annual drop in housing values, while three capitals saw values rise over the year: Adelaide (up 10.1%), Darwin (4.3%), and Perth (3.6%).
CoreLogic’s research director, Tim Lawless, said this has been a year of contrasts, with housing values mostly rising through the first four months of the year, but falling sharply as the RBA commenced the fastest rate tightening cycle on record.
“Our daily index series saw national home values peak on May 7, shortly after the cash rate moved off emergency lows’, Lawless said.
“Since then, CoreLogic’s national index has fallen 8.2%, following a dramatic 28.9% rise in values through the upswing.”
The upper quartile of the housing market led the downturn through 2022, with most capital city and broad ‘rest-of-state’ regions recording weaker performance across the upper quartile relative to other sectors.
Despite the downturn across many areas of the country, housing values generally remain well above pre-COVID levels.
Across the combined capital cities, values remained 11.7% above where they were at the onset of COVID (March 2020), while values across the combined regional markets are still up 32.2%.
“Melbourne is the only capital city where the current downwards trend is getting close to wiping out the entirety of COVID gains, with dwelling values only 1.5% above March 2020 levels”, Lawless said.
“The relatively small difference between March 2020 and December 2022 levels can be attributed to a number of factors, including a larger drop in values during the early phase of COVID, a milder upswing through the growth cycle and the 8.3% drop since values peaked in February”, he concluded.
At the other end of the scale is Adelaide, where values remain 42.8% above pre-COVID levels. Adelaide dwelling values recorded a 44.7% gain through the upswing, and have held relatively firm since interest rates started to rise, down only 1.3% from the recent peak.
